Sobre el problema de la inducción en el método científico, o del pavo inductivista.

Hans Reichenbach hace la distinción entre contexto de descubrimiento y contexto de justificación en la ciencia. No existe una lógica del descubrimiento científico, pues aquí interviene la perspicacia, la creatividad del científico….; pero sí una lógica de la justificación científica. En el contexto de justificación se puede, partiendo de la observación, recurrir a la inducción para llegar a la hipótesis (pero esto es porque la hipótesis ya ha sido creativamente formada, con lo que sabemos a posteriori lo que hay que observar). No existen hechos puros, sólo existen hechos para una teoría. Se conceptualiza así la realidad en función de un marco de referencia. Surge  el problema de la infradeterminación del teórico, o la infradeterminación del concepto por la realidad.

La inducción fue declarada por Bacon el método de la ciencia que traería con el dominio de la naturaleza el progreso humano. El baconiano Newton  lo integra en su método hipotético deductivo para la formulación de las hipótesis a partir de la observación. Sin embargo el empirista Hume  critica la inducción como método. En el popular ejemplo del pavo inductivista, resulta que el día que el pavo induce que el granjero se levanta todas las mañanas para darle de comer , es el día de la víspera de Navidad y el pavo acaba en el horno. La naturaleza no tiene por que seguir comportándose de la misma manera. Newton recurre a un principio de inducción como principio de regularidad en la naturaleza. El problema epistemológico radica en que a ese principio de inducción, que justifica la inducción,  hemos llegado a su vez por inducción, cayendo en una falacia de petitio principii o círculo vicioso.

Por su parte el positivismo lógico muestra la misma confianza en el método inductivo. A partir de las observaciones, expresadas en proposiciones protocolares, se inducen las proposiciones teóricas de alcance general o universal, en una confianza en un isomorfismo entre lenguaje y mundo en la que se toma como criterio de sentido empírico el criterio de verificabilidad en principio, (el sentido de una proposición es su método de verificación). El problema epistemológico radica aquí en que una proposición universal nunca puede ser verificada al completo, a no ser que su universo de discurso sea finito, con lo que tampoco tendríamos el problema de la inducción; pero éste no es el caso  de las  proposiciones de la ciencia  que tienen alcance universal. No es un universo de discurso finito que pueda ser verificado al completo. Por otro lado decir que si una hipótesis teórica es cierta entonces  observaremos una y “n” veces determinado fenómeno, nos hace caer en la falacia de afirmación del consecuente, puesto que la observación de ese fenómeno nunca puede dar validez lógica a la afirmación del antecedente. Lo que pretende ser una inferencia inductiva es en realidad una falacia formal. En cambio la falsación en principio, tiene la estructura lógica de un modus tollens, por lo que  la conclusión es válida en todo caso. Es decir, no se puede dar el caso de que las premisas sean verdaderas y la conclusión falsa.  Si esta hipótesis teórica es cierta, entonces tengo que observar esto; si en algún caso se da que no observo esto, entonces puedo concluir con validez lógica que la hipótesis no es cierta. El modus tollens sí nos permite negar el antecedente. Nunca podemos verificar por completo una proposición científica de carácter universal, pero sí se podría falsar de modo concluyente. Tampoco es posible verificar un enunciado particular negativo, mientras sí es posible su falsación.

Además,  el criterio de falsación en principio no es considerado por Popper un criterio de sentido empírico, como hacen los positivistas con el criterio de verificación, sino un criterio de demarcación entre lo que es ciencia y lo que no lo es (pseudociencia). Así, si una hipótesis es falsable, se acepta provisionalmente.

También para los positivistas lógicos, la totalidad de las proposiciones con sentido componen la totalidad de la ciencia natural. Su crítica a la metafísica viene de la mano de que sus enunciados son seudoenunciados, es decir, que carecen de sentido pues no se pueden verificar ni falsar. Sin embargo para Popper, las proposiciones de la metafísica no serían ciencia, no caerían dentro de la demarcación de lo que es ciencia, pero no por ello carecen de sentido o dejan de suponer otra forma de saber. Procura así no caer en el cientismo que supone reducir la totalidad del saber humano a la ciencia.

Sin embargo, tanto el verificacionismo de los positivistas como el falsacionismo de Popper, caen en una contradicción performativa, pues ni el criterio de falsación, ni el de verificación, son proposiciones  falsables o verificables, con lo que caerían ellas mismas fuera de la demarcación de lo que es ciencia y que ellas establecen. Esto es, no podemos recurrir a la realidad para demostrar que sólo son científicas las hipótesis que son falsables, o las hipótesis que son verificables.

 

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