Evidencias de un nuevo planeta y el método hipotético deductivo.

Se ha anunciado el descubrimiento de un nuevo planeta en nuestro sistema solar.  Bautizado como Planeta Nueve, fue detectado  mediante cálculos matemáticos y simulaciones de computadora. No ha sido posible observarlo directamente. Su existencia se supone a la luz de los datos; sería coherente con ellos.
Esto nos recuerda el caso del descubrimiento de Neptuno que, como aplicación del método hipotético deductivo o  experimental propio de las ciencias empírico naturales,  verificó la hipótesis de la gravitación universal newtoniana.

Los pasos del método hipotético deductivo son:
1- Observación del fenómeno a estudiar.
2- Creación de una hipótesis para explicar dicho fenómeno.
3- Deducción de consecuencias observables a partir de la propia hipótesis.
4- Diseño de un experimento y contrastación empírica (verificación o falsación) de las predicciones deducidas a partir de la hipótesis.

Es importante darse cuenta de que las hipótesis se testan por las consecuencias observacionales deducidas lógico-matemáticamente de ellas. También hay que observar que, en el punto 2, no hemos recurrido exclusivamente a la inducción como hace Newton, sino a la creatividad en el contexto de descubrimiento;  como por ejemplo el sueño de Kekulé y el descubrimiento de la estructura molecular del benceno. (La crítica de Popper al problema de la inducción en el positivismo creo que merece otro post).

El descubrimiento de Neptuno:
1º.- Obsevación de un problema: en el siglo XIX, los astrónomos Adams y Le Verrier descubrieron que el planeta Urano no seguía la órbita prevista por las leyes de Newton.
2º.- Formulación de una hipótesis: supusieron que tales irregularidades serían producidas por la atracción de otro planeta en una órbita exterior.
3º.- Deducción de consecuencias observables: si existiera tal planeta debía tener tal masa y debía encontrarse en tal punto en el cielo y por tanto con un telescopio se debería observar.
4º.- Experimento: el astrónomo Galle —que disponía de un potente telescopio— halló efectivamente el planeta supuesto al que llamaron Neptuno, la hipótesis resultó corroborada por la experiencia.

El caso que hoy nos ocupa es muy similar y va a poner a prueba todas las hipótesis cosmológicas basadas en la teoría de la relatividad que han servido para deducir la existencia de este planeta. Al igual que cuando Galle observó con el telescopio a Neptuno, cuando cualquier observatorio del mundo observe el  nuevo planeta, las hipótesis de partida quedarán verificadas porque han sido capaces de predecir nuevos hechos observables con éxito.

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    A propos du festiblog : quelle déception ! 1h30 d’attente pendant laquelle j’ai avancé de 2,5 mètres. A 18h30, encore une bonne dizaine de personnes devant moi, étirés sur une dizaine de mètres… Ma fille de 2 ans et demi n’en peut plus, j’ai un rendez-vous dans 10 minutes… La mort dans l’âme (oui bon j’exagère un peu, mais la déception était bien réelle !), j’abandonne.De l’artiste, je n’aurai vu qu’une épaule, fugacement. Pas glop.

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